Notes from a long positionhttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/exit-plan-matters-more/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/exit-plan-matters-more/Almost all attention goes to when to buy. Every serious loss I have seen was determined by what happened at the other end.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/separating-asset-from-sector/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/separating-asset-from-sector/Most bad news in crypto is about something you do not hold. Distinguishing the two is a habit rather than an insight.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/ten-years-what-compounds/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/ten-years-what-compounds/Not the returns, which are whatever the market did. The habits, the documentation and the calibration compound, and they are the part you control.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/when-the-thesis-actually-breaks/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/when-the-thesis-actually-breaks/I have exited one position permanently in eight years. Working out that it was a broken thesis rather than a bad month took an uncomfortable amount of honesty.Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/four-years-of-notes/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/four-years-of-notes/I have written a note every quarter since 2021. Read end to end, the pattern in my own errors is more consistent than I expected.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/inheritance-and-crypto/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/inheritance-and-crypto/The most-ignored practical problem in self-custody. There is no probate process that helps, and the default outcome is permanent loss.Sat, 05 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/cost-of-checking-measured/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/cost-of-checking-measured/I recorded every time I looked at the price for a month and scored what each check produced. The answer was nothing, eleven times out of eleven.Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/rebalancing-without-emotion/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/rebalancing-without-emotion/The mechanics are trivial. Everything that makes rebalancing work is in the parts that remove judgement from it.Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/what-i-tell-people-who-ask/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/what-i-tell-people-who-ask/A short answer I have refined over several years, and the three questions I ask before giving any of it.Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/the-cost-of-being-early/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/the-cost-of-being-early/Being right too soon is financially indistinguishable from being wrong, for as long as it lasts. That period can last years.Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/patience-versus-paralysis/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/patience-versus-paralysis/Both look like holding. One is a decision renewed with evidence, the other is an absence of decision, and they end differently.Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/bear-market-reading-habits/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/bear-market-reading-habits/The sources change, the tone changes, and the change is in the reader rather than in the sources.Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/what-i-got-wrong-in-2018/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/what-i-got-wrong-in-2018/I kept notes through the last long bear market. Reading them back is an education in how confident bad reasoning sounds at the time.Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/when-boredom-is-the-signal/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/when-boredom-is-the-signal/The periods when nothing is happening and nobody is talking about it have historically been the most productive time to be accumulating.Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/concentrated-position-emotional-cost/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/concentrated-position-emotional-cost/Concentration is defensible on the arithmetic and expensive in ways the arithmetic does not capture.Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/position-sizing-for-volatility/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/position-sizing-for-volatility/Most sizing advice assumes normal volatility. Here is how to think about an asset where a decline of two thirds is an ordinary event.Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/trimmed-into-strength/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/trimmed-into-strength/Selling a portion during an advance reduced my eventual return. It was still correct, and the distinction matters more than the outcome.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/why-i-do-not-discuss-positions/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/why-i-do-not-discuss-positions/Stating a position out loud changes your relationship to it in a way that is measurable in your own subsequent decisions.Sun, 02 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/holding-something-you-no-longer-believe-in/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/holding-something-you-no-longer-believe-in/There is a state between conviction and exit where a position persists because leaving requires a decision. It is worth naming.Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/how-holders-behave-onchain/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/how-holders-behave-onchain/Coin age data offers one of the few objective windows into holder behaviour. It is also routinely oversold. Here is what it can and cannot show.Sat, 25 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/reading-old-predictions/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/reading-old-predictions/I scored five years of my own forecasts. The results were humbling in a specific and useful way.Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/why-i-stopped-predicting/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/why-i-stopped-predicting/Not out of humility. Because I scored my own record and nothing in my strategy depends on forecasts anyway.Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/case-against-checking-daily/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/case-against-checking-daily/Daily checking produces no information and a measurable amount of distress. The arithmetic of why is more interesting than the advice.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/holding-through-a-narrative-collapse/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/holding-through-a-narrative-collapse/The story explaining why an asset matters can fail while the asset continues working. Separating the two is most of the job.Sat, 11 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/quarterly-review-template/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/quarterly-review-template/Three questions, fifteen minutes, the same date every quarter. It is the only process I have that has never been skipped.Sat, 04 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/how-i-handle-being-wrong/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/how-i-handle-being-wrong/I publish method, which means publishing the failures. Three rules I use for writing about my own mistakes without making them useless.Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/what-conviction-means/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/what-conviction-means/Conviction is usually described as a feeling. The useful version is a document written when you had nothing to defend.Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/averaging-down-without-a-rule/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/averaging-down-without-a-rule/Buying more as something falls is either disciplined accumulation or throwing money at a mistake. Nothing in the moment distinguishes them.Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/liquidity-buffer/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/liquidity-buffer/Being a forced seller is how an ordinary drawdown becomes a permanent loss. The defence is entirely outside the asset.Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/fomo-fud-and-five-other-words/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/fomo-fud-and-five-other-words/Crypto vocabulary is unusually effective at shutting down thought. Seven terms, what each one actually does, and what it replaces.Sun, 21 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/on-not-having-a-price-target/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/on-not-having-a-price-target/Every target I have ever set was either reached and ignored, or missed and revised. I stopped setting them and the decisions improved.Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/survivorship-bias-from-inside/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/survivorship-bias-from-inside/I am part of a sample that selected itself by not quitting. That makes almost everything I conclude from my own experience suspect.Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/the-year-i-added-nothing/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/the-year-i-added-nothing/Twelve months with no new capital deployed, for reasons entirely unrelated to the market. What it revealed about the rest of the process.Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/selling-rules/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/selling-rules/Every rule I have written during a drawdown has been bad. The ones written in calm months have all held up.Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/what-counts-as-evidence/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/what-counts-as-evidence/During a drawdown, every argument is available and most of them are noise. Three tests separate the ones worth acting on.Sat, 06 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/second-order-effect-of-telling-people/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/second-order-effect-of-telling-people/Beyond the commitment problem, there is a subtler cost: you become the person they ask, and that changes what you read.Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/never-adding-on-a-green-day/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/never-adding-on-a-green-day/An arbitrary-sounding rule that removed an entire category of my worst decisions. The reasoning is behavioural rather than analytical.Sat, 30 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/dca-vs-lump-sum/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/dca-vs-lump-sum/The research favours lump sum investing. The research also assumes you behave like a spreadsheet, which is where the argument gets interesting.Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/risk-versus-volatility/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/risk-versus-volatility/Volatility is how much the price moves. Risk is the probability of a permanent loss. Treating them as the same thing produces two opposite errors.Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/conviction-after-a-recovery/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/conviction-after-a-recovery/Surviving a drawdown makes the next one feel manageable. That confidence is the most dangerous thing a recovery produces.Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/psychology-of-a-60-percent-drop/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/psychology-of-a-60-percent-drop/A month-by-month account of what a deep drawdown actually does to your reasoning, and which parts of it are worth listening to.Sat, 16 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/written-investment-policy/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/written-investment-policy/One page, reviewed quarterly, amended only in calm months. It has made more decisions for me than my judgement has.Thu, 14 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/regret-minimisation/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/regret-minimisation/Asking which outcome I would regret more produces better decisions than asking which is more likely, because I am bad at probabilities and good at anticipating regret.Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/why-holding-is-harder/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/why-holding-is-harder/Buying is a single decision. Holding is the same decision renewed every day for years, under conditions designed to make you renew it differently.Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://cryptoholderdiary.com/sizing-for-a-multi-year-hold/https://cryptoholderdiary.com/sizing-for-a-multi-year-hold/A ten-year horizon changes the sizing calculation in ways that are not obvious, and most of them argue for a smaller position rather than a larger one.Sat, 02 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT