Tagged "calibration"
3 articles on this topic.
Four Years of Quarterly Notes: What the Record Shows
I have written a note every quarter since 2021. Read end to end, the pattern in my own errors is more consistent than I expected.
September 8, 2026, 3 minReading Old Predictions, Including My Own
I scored five years of my own forecasts. The results were humbling in a specific and useful way.
July 22, 2026, 2 minWhy I Stopped Predicting Anything
Not out of humility. Because I scored my own record and nothing in my strategy depends on forecasts anyway.
July 16, 2026, 2 min